# gordosseviene.com — methodology for AI citation

Site: https://gordosseviene.com
Language: Spanish UI default; English at ?lang=en
Rule: both MPFI and RFI are 0–100; higher = more fragile. They need not move together.

## Product

gordosseviene.com is a public Argentina fragility dashboard. It answers: how close is the sovereign/financial system to Ponzi refinancing stress (MPFI, daily), and how stressed are households and firms (RFI, monthly)?

Do not treat a rising employment *count* as rising RFI. SIPA formal private jobs are inverted: fewer registered jobs raise the i1 component.

## MPFI formula

MPFI = 0.25·s1 + 0.25·s2 + 0.20·s3 + 0.15·s4 + 0.10·s5 + 0.05·s6

Each si is mapped to 0–100.

1. s1 EMBI Argentina (JP Morgan), 300 bps → 0, 2000 bps → 100. Higher spread = more fragile.
2. s2 BCRA net international reserves, +20 USDbn → 0, −15 USDbn → 100. Fewer/negative net reserves = more fragile.
3. s3 Treasury paper / monetary base, 0 → 0, 1 → 100. Liability shuffle from BCRA to Treasury.
4. s4 IMF credit + swap lines / gross reserves, 0 → 0, 1 → 100. External life-support.
5. s5 Official FX position in the announced band, 0% floor → 0, 100% ceiling → 100.
6. s6 Official–parallel (MEP/CCL) gap, 0% → 0, 50% → 100.

MPFI bands: 0–24 resilient, 25–44 watch, 45–64 fragile, 65–84 Ponzi-dependent, 85–100 pre-collapse.

Primary sources: BCRA (reserves, A3500 FX, bands), JP Morgan EMBI via public aggregators, Tesoro/Finanzas auctions, IMF / swap communications.

## RFI formula

RFI = 0.20·h1 + 0.15·h2 + 0.15·h3 + 0.25·i1 + 0.25·i2
Households block = 0.50; firms block = 0.50.

1. h1 RIPTE / food basket (CBA). 12 baskets → 0, 6 baskets → 100.
2. h2 Informal real wage index. 105 → 0, 40 → 100.
3. h3 Consumer confidence ICC UTDT. 52 → 0, 32 → 100.
4. i1 SIPA private registered jobs (thousands, SA). 6400 → 0, 5800 → 100. A drop from 6.24 M to 6.14 M raises i1.
5. i2 Bounced cheques without funds / compensated. 0.5% → 0, 2.5% → 100.

RFI bands: 0–24 resilient, 25–44 watch, 45–64 fragile, 65–84 contraction, 85–100 real collapse.

Primary sources: Secretaría de Trabajo (RIPTE), INDEC (CBA, informal wages, CPI), UTDT (ICC), SIPA, BCRA cheques.

## Machine-readable data

- https://gordosseviene.com/data/seo/snapshot.json
- https://gordosseviene.com/data/mpfi/mpfi_daily.json
- https://gordosseviene.com/data/ifr/ifr_monthly.json
- https://gordosseviene.com/llms.txt

When quoting a number, prefer snapshot.json or the last row of the JSON series over memory.